Tony Ferguson: Just a Lucky Turd?

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Tony Ferguson: Just a Lucky Turd?

Postby PainDog » Thu Oct 12, 2017 1:20 pm

So did Kevin Lee having such a tough weight cut and staph give Tony Ferguson a lucky victory?

You cannot win 10 straight fights in perhaps the deepest weight class in MMA based on luck.

Each fighter has certain tendencies and certain exploitable weaknesses in their skill set. Sometimes what seems to be an exploitable weakness is a result of the fighter’s specific strength.

Wanderlei Silva was always susceptible to straight punches throughout his career. His entire approach to fighting was based on power and aggression, so he would move forward throwing wild hooks, with the understanding he might get hit back. Silva’s approach was to land with more power than his opponent, that they couldn’t survive the Axe Murderers onslaught. In his prime he was more often than not correct, as he went on an 18 fight tear where he didn’t lose a fight. He sacrificed defense in favor of a potent offense.


Wand gave no fucks if he got hit, because he was confident his opponents could not withstand his offensive assault


If we look at Tony he has certain tendencies which create defensive holes. He keeps his hands low and his chin high.

Much like Wanderlei Silva, Tony sacrifices defense in favor of offense. He keeps his arms low to be less predictable with his strikes. He also is switches stance and throws unorthodox strikes such as elbows. At the same time in three of his last four fights he has been dropped in the first round, and in the other fight he still lost the first round.



Like Silva, Tony is an offensive whirlwind, however instead of just throwing wild hooks he is varied and creative in his offense, everything from Imanari rolls and elbows off his back, to a lengthy and effective jab


In each of those fights he managed to comeback and either get the finish in the second or win the second and ultimately the fight.

Something that is also consistent is that his opponents output and striking percentage drops the longer the fight goes, while Fergusons remains constant and consistent.

His opposition tends to struggle to keep up with the pace he sets. As Tony keeps throwing and landing into the later rounds his opponents output starts to diminish and the accuracy of those strikes also diminishes.

He has defense through offense. While standing one of Tony’s best punches in a check hook.
The same can be applied to his wrestling. Tony has no problem to give up a takedown as he will land hard strikes and look for submissions off of his back.

His style comes with risk, but he seems to have the durability and stamina to implement it. At least at this point in his career.
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Re: Tony Ferguson: Just a Lucky Turd?

Postby ebickmeyer » Thu Oct 12, 2017 1:32 pm

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Re: Tony Ferguson: Just a Lucky Turd?

Postby Mr Meow » Thu Oct 12, 2017 1:33 pm

This is what makes the Mcgregor Tony fight so interesting in my opinion.

Tony leaves himself open a lot to be countered like you say.

However If Conor lands on him hard in the early rounds and does not finish, he will be exhausted and Tony will still be coming forward as he always does.

so in my opinion if Conor does not win in the first 2 and a half rounds Tony will maul him on the feet and take him to the ground and maul him more there.

If Tony wanted to change it up and shoot for takedowns early that would change everything however.

Hopefully we see it but I am not banking on it. Edgar talked all sorts of shit to Mcgregor for almost a year straight and never once got a response. They did not fight. Tony has been talking shit about Mcgregor and has dialed it up recently, yet to hear a response. So yeah you do the math.
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Re: Tony Ferguson: Just a Lucky Turd?

Postby Lt Shiznitski » Thu Oct 12, 2017 1:49 pm

Mr Meow wrote:This is what makes the Mcgregor Tony fight so interesting in my opinion.

Tony leaves himself open a lot to be countered like you say.

However If Conor lands on him hard in the early rounds and does not finish, he will be exhausted and Tony will still be coming forward as he always does.

so in my opinion if Conor does not win in the first 2 and a half rounds Tony will maul him on the feet and take him to the ground and maul him more there.

If Tony wanted to change it up and shoot for takedowns early that would change everything however.

Hopefully we see it but I am not banking on it. Edgar talked all sorts of shit to Mcgregor for almost a year straight and never once got a response. They did not fight. Tony has been talking shit about Mcgregor and has dialed it up recently, yet to hear a response. So yeah you do the math.
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Re: Tony Ferguson: Just a Lucky Turd?

Postby PBells » Thu Oct 12, 2017 1:57 pm

It's Tony's chupacabra fighting magic. I've never seen anyone walk through so many flush headkicks as Tony did against Barboza. It might be starting to fade as seen in the Vannata fight and getting dropped by Lee, though.

The only big downside is that once it's gone, it's gone. Look at Cain and his Aztec fighting magic. :idea:
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Re: Tony Ferguson: Just a Lucky Turd?

Postby robdogj » Thu Oct 12, 2017 2:00 pm

IMHO El Cucuy has Great Coaches in his corner - in this last fight he won because he had better BJJ - look who is his BJJ Coach - Eddie Bravo - I am sure that is why dude has performed so well - stays in shape - has a Great Stable of Coaches - The sky is the limit for this guy
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Re: Tony Ferguson: Just a Lucky Turd?

Postby philphan » Thu Oct 12, 2017 2:34 pm

He fought a less experienced guy without the big fight knowhow. He is also better at bjj. Lee needs a couple more years and four or five more fights to be in turds leauge.
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Re: Tony Ferguson: Just a Lucky Turd?

Postby DeceptaCon » Thu Oct 12, 2017 3:00 pm

Lt Shiznitski wrote:
Mr Meow wrote:This is what makes the Mcgregor Tony fight so interesting in my opinion.

Tony leaves himself open a lot to be countered like you say.

However If Conor lands on him hard in the early rounds and does not finish, he will be exhausted and Tony will still be coming forward as he always does.

so in my opinion if Conor does not win in the first 2 and a half rounds Tony will maul him on the feet and take him to the ground and maul him more there.

If Tony wanted to change it up and shoot for takedowns early that would change everything however.

Hopefully we see it but I am not banking on it. Edgar talked all sorts of shit to Mcgregor for almost a year straight and never once got a response. They did not fight. Tony has been talking shit about Mcgregor and has dialed it up recently, yet to hear a response. So yeah you do the math.

Luck favors the prepared but eventually his style will catch up to him as he faces better strikers. The same thing happened to Chuck Liddell, its one thing to take a punch from a wrestler or small Lando but you start taking punches from bigger more technical strikers Like McCuckhold then you start to fade fast. Even Nate could only take so much from Conor in the early rounds. Tony ElCuckoholdo will have to make some adjustments or just swallow his pride and go for the ankle pick and end the fight quickly. TBH I would rather see Khabib just crush Conor like a fucking grapefruit in his vice grips, just toy with him and mangle him like he did Michael Johnson but a quick finish from Tony would be nice as well.
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Re: Tony Ferguson: Just a Lucky Turd?

Postby Darklord » Thu Oct 12, 2017 3:24 pm

Mr Meow wrote:
Tony leaves himself open a lot to be countered like you say.

A lot of people have commented that "IF Tony hangs his chin in front of Conor........" :roll:

I think Tony has a specific gameplan for each opponent and the way he fought Kevin will not be the same way he fights Conor. I could see Tony doing a hedgehog-roll into a leg lock and putting Conor on the floor where he had NO answers....no stand up required. But we will have to wait and see how it transpires. Tony has more experience, more Lightweight wins, more tools and cardio that is unmatched. All Conor has is a 7 minute window to make a big punch connect. This is Tonys fight to lose and Conor is 0-0 at title defenses.
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Re: Tony Ferguson: Just a Lucky Turd?

Postby robdogj » Thu Oct 12, 2017 3:56 pm

BTW, what if El Cucuy fights Khabib? Remember that El Cucuy got mounted vs K Lee - Couldn't Khabib exploit that? Khabib has to be better on the ground than K Lee right?
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Re: Tony Ferguson: Just a Lucky Turd?

Postby ebickmeyer » Thu Oct 12, 2017 3:57 pm

ebickmeyer wrote:


Ok the reason why I posted this vid was because it explains how Ferguson looked like he was getting hit a lot in this fight but he was rolling well with the punches and even on the ground when he was mounted he wasn't getting hit like it appeared to be.
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Re: Tony Ferguson: Just a Lucky Turd?

Postby kezzaman » Thu Oct 12, 2017 4:30 pm

Tony looked terrible in the 1st round. His chin was way out there Conor would have lit him up easy
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Re: Tony Ferguson: Just a Lucky Turd?

Postby DeceptaCon » Thu Oct 12, 2017 5:59 pm

Darklord wrote:
Mr Meow wrote:
Tony leaves himself open a lot to be countered like you say.

A lot of people have commented that "IF Tony hangs his chin in front of Conor........" :roll:

I think Tony has a specific gameplan for each opponent and the way he fought Kevin will not be the same way he fights Conor. I could see Tony doing a hedgehog-roll into a leg lock and putting Conor on the floor where he had NO answers....no stand up required. But we will have to wait and see how it transpires. Tony has more experience, more Lightweight wins, more tools and cardio that is unmatched. All Conor has is a 7 minute window to make a big punch connect. This is Tonys fight to lose and Conor is 0-0 at title defenses.

:lol: :lol: @hedgehog I know Nate could have done the same but Tony's pride, ego and his confidence in his striking and chin won't allow for such roll. He likes to fight too much and goes for submissions after he gets rocked but who knows if he csn eat Edson Barboza's strikes then Conor might be child's play for El Choloroll.
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Re: Tony Ferguson: Just a Lucky Turd?

Postby PainDog » Fri Oct 13, 2017 12:02 am

ebickmeyer wrote:
ebickmeyer wrote:


Ok the reason why I posted this vid was because it explains how Ferguson looked like he was getting hit a lot in this fight but he was rolling well with the punches and even on the ground when he was mounted he wasn't getting hit like it appeared to be.


I watched the video and it is a good video.

At the same time the guy almost contradicts himself when he is implying Tony has sound unorthodox defense by lifting his head....and then at 8:50 comments Tony's tendencies to be defenseless.

Being defenseless is having poor defense.

Don't get me wrong he is good at avoiding strikes in the sense he is very good at controlling the range, but he still gets hit clean and hard in almost every single fight.

Even when he wasn't dropped in the RDA fight he ate clean several clean shots that looked like they had power even in the fourth round.


Even in the shitty quality of this video you can clearly see the strikes land.

Even if you consider the number of times Tony gets dropped in fights he wins. The only person I can think of who got dropped as often in fights that he ultimately ended up winning is Dan Henderson...another fighter famous for his chin.
Last edited by PainDog on Fri Oct 13, 2017 12:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tony Ferguson: Just a Lucky Turd?

Postby slevin » Fri Oct 13, 2017 12:17 am

PainDog wrote:
ebickmeyer wrote:
ebickmeyer wrote:


Ok the reason why I posted this vid was because it explains how Ferguson looked like he was getting hit a lot in this fight but he was rolling well with the punches and even on the ground when he was mounted he wasn't getting hit like it appeared to be.


I watch the video and it is a good video.

At the same time the guy almost contradicts himself when he is implying Tony has sound unorthodox defense by lifting his head....and then at 8:50 comments Tony's tendencies to be defenseless.

Being defenseless is having poor defense.

Don't get me wrong he is good at avoiding strikes in the sense he is very good at controlling the range, but he still gets hit clean and hard in almost every single fight.

Even when he wasn't dropped in the RDA fight he ate clean several clean shots that looked like they had power even in the fourth round.


Even in the shitty quality of this video you can clearly see the strikes land.

Even if you consider the number of times Tony gets dropped in fights he wins. The only person I can think of who got dropped as often in fights that he ultimately ended up winning is Dan Henderson...another fighter famous for his chin.

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