Breakdown:
UFC 109: Relentless

By Convectuoso

[youtube">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmFoAm2ZyYE[/youtube">

It’s a cursed beast, I tell you, but UFC 109 has finally arrived. Sure, the constant shifting of the scheduled lineup may have left it bruised, bloodied, in need of a physical therapist and some good crutches, but that doesn’t matter. What matters is that, as Barry Manilow once said, it looks like we made it.

We're there.

You know what else is here…erm, there? The picks for Saturday’s night of fights—take heed and place your bets accordingly.

Disclaimer: The Sheep’s Pen does not endorse gambling in any way, shape, or form. We’re not Charles Barkley. Also, our signature bet forum is merely a hallucination from all the illegal substances you’ve probably been consuming. Any money you subsequently lose (and you will lose your money) from actually listening to me is totally on you, Cheech.

Disclaimer numero dos: The Sheep’s Pen has nothing against Sir Charles.

So…picks anyone?


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Main card:


Welterweight bout: Frank Trigg vs. Matt Serra


Both men are looking to rebound from tough losses in a fight that very well could determine which of the two fighters retains their spot within the organization. However, from an outside perspective, it does seem that Trigg is standing on ice much thinner than the patch currently occupied by Serra—a knockout loss in your comeback fight can do that.

As it stands, Serra seems to be the fighter with more left in the tank. He may be coming off of two consecutive losses, but one is to welterweight champ and all-around juggernaut, Georges St-Pierre, with the other coming in a close decision to former-champ Matt Hughes.

Look for the fight to stay on the feet for a bit with Trigg being cautious so as not to have a repeat of the Koscheck fight. Hughes had some difficulty getting Serra down in their recent bout (though Hughes claimed to have been disoriented for most of the fight due to an inadvertent headbutt), so the fight could remain on the feet for some time. The fight should, however, hit the mat at some point with Trigg looking to pepper Serra with shots from top position when he can.

He’ll slip up eventually and Serra will land the sub.


Pick: Matt Serra via submission.

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Middleweight bout: Demian Maia vs. Dan Miller


Demian Maia squares off against Dan Miller in his first fight following a devastating knockout loss at the hands of Nate Marquardt. The thing to pay attention to in this fight is Maia’s striking. It’s no secret that his stand-up game is one of his weakest areas. While it will be interesting to note whether or not he’s made any noticeable improvements to that part of his game, I don’t expect it to matter much in the way of affecting the outcome of this fight.

While Dan Miller has proven to be a solid enough fighter—with the fighter recently receiving his black belt in BJJ—and has only lost once inside the UFC, I can’t help but see this fight as potentially being a repeat of Maia’s fight with Jason Macdonald.

I think Miller knows his greatest shot at beating Maia lies in keeping the fight standing, but staying there could prove to be somewhat tricky. Ring rust is something else that may play a part in this one since Miller hasn’t fought in nine months (his last outing being a unanimous decision loss against Chael Sonnen at UFC 98).


Pick: Demian Maia via submission.


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Welterweight bout: Mike Swick vs. Paulo Thiago


American Kickboxing Academy stand-out Mike Swick, coming off a tough loss to Dan Hardy, looks to get back on the winning track with a win over Paulo Thiago. Thiago, who rose to prominence after scoring a shocking knockout victory against Josh Koscheck, has since proven that he’s no pushover.

While his stand-up may not be as polished as it can or should be, he has shown that he has some power in his hands and can drop you if he connects; his power coupled with his ability as a grappler makes him a tough fight. It isn’t a stretch to see Thiago taking this if Swick sleeps on him or begins to take him lightly—just look to the Koscheck fight for proof of this.

Swick has the better stand-up of the two, and I imagine he’ll sprawl often to keep this fight on the feet where he should have the advantage. If the fight hits the mat, and there’s a good chance of that happening, Swick should be able to defend against most of what Thiago will throw his way before eventually making his way back to his feet.

Pick: Mike Swick via unanimous decision.

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Middleweight bout: Nate Marquardt vs. Chael Sonnen


Nate Marquardt looks to finally earn another shot at UFC Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva with a win over the Dana White-loving Chael Sonnen who most recently scored a significant win over the highly-touted Yushin Okami.

Sonnen is a tough guy to root for. He talks a lot and rarely seems to give credit where credit, but what most seem to dislike is his style. Sonnen is a decorated wrestler and tends to use the strongest part of his game, as he should, to grind fights out which can make them ugly to watch.

Is it likely he’ll get Nate to the ground? Yes. However, I don’t see him being able to control him or keep him there long enough to do anything substantial. Nate has excellent jiu-jitsu and it goes without saying that he’s miles ahead of Sonnen in the striking department.

One can make the argument that I’m selling Sonnen short, but I just don’t see any real way (outside of some lay-n-pray) that he wins this fight. He certainly isn't going to go for a submission if he sees one; he's a Republican, damn it. They don't do...that.

But hey, at least he’ll still have a fridge full of soda. That has to count for something, right?


Pick: Nate Marquardt via TKO.

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Light-Heavyweight bout: Randy Couture vs. Mark Coleman


In the main event of the evening, Randy Couture continues his push through the light-heavyweight division when he faces off against fellow-veteran Mark Coleman.

Many jokes have been made about this fight, with most focusing on the collective age of both men, but you have to respect that these men have both found ways to remain competitive in a sport as unforgiving as MMA. Coleman recently—in his first fight following an ugly and somewhat embarrassing loss to Mauricio “Shogun” Rua.—dispatched of The Ultimate Fighter 1 finalist Stephan Bonnar in a fight where not many believed he’d come through with a victory. It wasn’t the most exciting of wins, and Bonnar is exactly an elite light-heavyweight, but Coleman showed that he still has a little something left.

Whether or not it will be enough to get past Randy Couture remains to be seen, but I don’t believe it will be. Couture, who won his last fight via unanimous decision in an ugly fight against Brandon Vera, has the better hands of the two, and that’s what will undoubtedly be the difference maker in this fight.

Both fighters are highly decorated wrestlers which is what makes me believe this fight will remain on the feet for most of the three rounds. Their wrestling will likely cancel each other out leaving the striking as what should decide the victor—the same thing happened in the Tyson Griffin/Sean Sherk fight, but that isn’t the only example of this.

Coleman’s striking hasn’t seemed to have improved enough to put Randy in any real danger, but that doesn’t mean he can get careless; he’s been dropped or hurt at least twice in each of his last three fights. Perhaps some of that is understandable given the opponents he was facing, but it is still something to at least consider.

Look for Couture to utilize the clinch and work some dirty boxing while picking his shots whenever the two separate. With that said, I don’t see Couture finishing Coleman, but he should be able to land enough to take home a decision victory.


Pick: Randy Couture via unanimous decision.


Note: Two fights from the preliminary card will be airing live on Spike. The both fights (and a few others off the prelims) are below.

- Mac Danzig vs. Justin Bucholz - Danzig via unanimous decision.

- Melvin Guillard vs. Ronnys Torres - Torres via submission.

- Phillipe Nover vs. Rob Emerson - Nover via decision.