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UFC 161: Smart Bets

courtesy of mmaweekly.com

With a big pay-per-view card this Saturday, fight fans are eager for more action after an exciting Fuel card last weekend. In 3 days, the UFC will present us with an action-packed card full of heavy hitters that are destined to produce fireworks. Before we hit the card head-on with some analysis and predictions, let’s take a look at what “Vegas” has to say about this card.

Betting odds are from fantasy MMA website MMAPlayground

Dan “Hollywood” Henderson -110
Rashad “Suga” Evans -120

Stipe Miocic +600
Roy Nelson -640

Alexis “Ally-Gator” Davis -105
Rosi “The Surgeon” Sexton -130

Shawn “The Savage” Jordan +325
Pat “HD” Barry -345

Jake Shields +115
Tyron “T-wood” Woodley -125

Igor Pokrajac +390
Ryan “Big Deal” Jimmo -430

Sean Pierson -105
Kenny Robertson -125

Edwin Figueroa -105
Roland “Stunning” Delorme -120

Mitch Clarke +370
John Maguire -410

Dustin “The Disciple” Pague +390
Yves “Tiger” Jabouin -430

James Krause +225
Sam “Hands of Stone” Stout -250

Smart Bets

Dustin Pague over Yves Jabouin at +390 – For being your typical “striker vs. grappler” match-up, the odds are surprisingly stacked against the grappler. Both fighters are coming off of tough losses and for Pague, it’s been two strikes in a row. Heading into this fight, Pague is in a do-or-die situation. At +390 you’re pretty much betting whether Pague can get the takedown or not, and I believe he can. Not only that, but I believe Pague could pull off the finish. Pague is crafty enough on the ground, and experienced enough on the feet, to give Jabouin troubles and grind him out en route to an upset victory for the “Disciple”.

James Krause over Sam Stout at +225 – While I’m not fully comfortable with this bet, I definitely think it’s a real possibility. Sam Stout has never impressed me much, being that he’s never made it past “gate keeper” contention. And with his last victory coming by split decision, a loss could be very well in store for him in his next bout. Against a tough, gritty grappler like James Krause, who has his fair share of experience coming into his UFC debut, Sam Stout could be in for a long night. Krause has the right style to beat a guy like Sam Stout, and ontop of that, Krause has quite a bit of momentum going for him.

Shawn Jordan over Pat Barry at +325 – As well liked and favored as Pat Barry is, Shawn Jordan is a stylistic nightmare for him. Any guy who can close the distance on Barry, smother him against the cage, and grind him down can be labeled as a threat. Because of Barry’s small, meatball-like frame, he’s easily to wrap up and control in the clinch, especially when you’re a big athletic guy like Shawn Jordan. What’s even worse is that the more tired Barry gets, the less-threatening his stand up becomes. If Shawn Jordan can just weather the storm, keep Barry hesitant, and tire him out, he is a very valid opponent.

-Hodgi

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